There’s a very good chance that the thunderstorms that will develop overnight and continue on Thursday will become severe. Risks are periods of heavy rain, strong wind gusts and hail. If everything falls into place, there’s also a risk of tornado development. Chase status has been upgraded to Alert.
A cold front will be moving through Oklahoma overnight, meeting warm and moist air from the south. The area at greatest risk will be SE Oklahoma, but dew point values in the 60’s and anticipated sheer will create instability in our area. This system is definitely something worth keeping a close watch on through the day on Thursday.
The high temp on Thursday is expected to reach near 70 deg with forecast rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch in some areas. Coverage for this storm will most likely be near 100%.
The latest NWS bulletin:
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING…PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND POSSIBLY WARNINGS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.
AGAIN THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS…ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO RISK CONTINUES TO BE NON ZERO. AT THIS TIME…EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY…AND THEREFORE THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER…IF HIGHER INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE REALIZED TOMORROW…THE TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO BE GREATER. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE REGIONS OF HEAVY RAIN…HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS CURRENTLY APPEAR MOST LIKELY FURTHER EAST INTO ARKANSAS.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT…
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY. ENSURE ALL COMMUNICATION CHANNELS ARE OPERATING EFFECTIVELY.
I’ll issue an update Thursday morning.