The outlook for Saturday includes a moderate risk for severe storms, including tornadoes, in Oklahoma. I’m keeping a close watch on the system as it develops. This could be the first chase day of the season.
…SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS… WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON…WITH STRONGER FALLS FORECAST FOR SAT EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE SRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE ADVECTION E OF THE DRY LINE ON SAT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND REACHING CENTRAL/ERN KS BY SAT EVENING. THIS MOISTURE RETURN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DRY LINE/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-2500 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SURROUNDING SLIGHT RISK. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS…VEERING WITH HEIGHT…WILL RESULT IN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /EXCEEDING 50 KT/ AND ORIENTED ACROSS THE DRY LINE. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED…STRONG TORNADOES OCCURRING FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING /INCLUDING AFTER DARK/.