HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
532 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
532 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011
…MAJOR WINTER STORM LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY…
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FLASH FLOOD.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET…LATE TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET…LATE TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET…OVERNIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER.
SNOW ACCUMULATION.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET…AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN LATER PERIODS.
ICE ACCUMULATION.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
ONSET…AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET…AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSION…
A VERY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL RAPIDLY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MAINLY RAIN WILL BE SEEN THROUGH TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
MOST OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA…TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND A VARIETY OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEFORE A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW. SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER 3 INCHES.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY…WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL…HIGH WIND POTENTIAL…
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL…HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY…HIGH WIND POTENTIAL…DANGEROUS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY…DANGEROUS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY…NO HAZARDS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
THE WINTER STORM THAT BEGINS LATE TONIGHT WILL INTENSIFY TUESDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA. RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN
EVENTUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
MISSOURI BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN EXTREMELY HEAVY
SNOWFALL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES OR MORE AN HOUR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW TO OUR EAST WILL ALSO RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
TO GREATER THAN 6 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTH OF HIGHWAY
412 WILL SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW FROM THIS STORM.
THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BUT
BITTERLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT…
LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS AND ANY CHANGES. PREPARATIONS FOR
DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER SHOULD BE COMPLETED TODAY…INCLUDING
PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.