HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
504 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011
…MAJOR WINTER STORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY…
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET…ONGOING.
WINTER WEATHER.
ICE ACCUMULATION.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…NORTH OF A PAWNEE TO NOWATA LINE.
ONSET…AFTER 3 AM.
DISCUSSION…
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS MAY MOVE INTO CHOCTAW AND PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT ENDING BY 6 PM.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND AS TEMPERATURES NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER FALL BELOW
FREEZING…A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY…WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL…HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY…WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL…HIGH WIND POTENTIAL…DANGEROUS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…DANGEROUS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY…NO HAZARDS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
A VERY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS…AND A WINTER STORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF I-40.
THE SMALL RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT MAY CARRY INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOME LIGHT ICING POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE A FAVORABLE TRACK TO BRING HEAVY
WINTER PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS
FOR A BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-44…WITH OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST…A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. AT
THIS TIME…IT STILL APPEARS THAT MAJOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
LIKELY DUE TO THE FAIRLY RAPID DEEPENING OF THE COLD AIRMASS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITORED CLOSELY HOWEVER AS A CHANGE OF JUST A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ALOFT WILL MEAN A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE TUESDAY…
ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY
DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER. IN ADDITION…STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL CAUSE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WHERE HEAVY SNOW FALLS.
THIS COULD ALSO MAKE EVEN SMALL ICE ACCUMULATION ON POWER LINES
DAMAGING.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
WITH WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT…
LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS AND ANY CHANGES. PREPARATIONS FOR
DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER SHOULD BE COMPLETED IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS…INCLUDING PREPARATIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT POWER
OUTAGES…ESPECIALLY IF ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE GREATER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.