HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
150 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
145 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011
…MAJOR WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY…
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET…AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK…ELEVATED.
AREA…EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET…ONGOING.
DISCUSSION…
UNUSUALLY WARM DRY WEATHER HAS CREATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND AN ELEVATED
FIRE RISK. THE RISK WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS MAY PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY…WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
MONDAY…WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL…HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY…WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL…HIGH WIND POTENTIAL…DANGEROUS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY…DANGEROUS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY…DANGEROUS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY…NO HAZARDS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THERE WILL BE A SMALL RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY FROM THIS STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS PROJECTS
CONSIDERABLE SNOWFALL FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 44 NORTH. FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA MAY ESCAPE WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING PRIMARILY AS RAIN BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN..SLEET AND ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW. THE AREA
GENERALLY BETWEEN INTERSTATE 44 AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA…AND ALL OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS…WILL LIKLEY SEE A HEAVY MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
IN THAT AREA…A LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN…
MIXING WITH…THEN CHANGING TO HEAVY SLEET…THEN EVENTUALLY ENDING AS
A PERIOD OF SNOW. ALL THIS WILL OCCUR AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 MILES
AN HOUR OR MORE.
SHOULD THIS SITUATION BECOME MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN EVENT…THAN A HEAVY
SNOW / SLEET EVENT…MAJOR POWER INTERUPTIONS WOULD BE LIKELY.
FRIGID WEATHER WILL TRAIL THE WINTER STORM…LASTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT…
POWER OUTAGES CAN BE EXPECTED.