HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
508 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2011
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
507 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2011
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…ONGOING.
DISCUSSION…
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO
LIMITED FIRE WEATHER DANGER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MOST
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 69.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY…WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY…WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL…HIGH WIND POTENTIAL…DANGEROUS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…DANGEROUS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WILL LEAD TO LIMITED FIRE DANGER
AGAIN SATURDAY…THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT…MARKING THE
BEGINNING OF A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THAT WILL IMPACT PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING…THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OF THIS
WINTER STORM ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
FORECAST MODEL DATA IS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT TO OCCUR MAINLY
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 WHERE SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WOULD SEE THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN…WHILE THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL SEE SOME FORM OF WINTRY MIXED
PRECIPITATION OR A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO.
MUCH MORE DEFINITION WILL BE ADDED TO LATER FORECAST…WHEN WE
CAN BETTER DELINEATE THE FREEZING RAIN…SLEET AND SNOW THREATS.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILL READINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT…
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS CLOSELY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE WILL
LIKELY CHANGE AS NEW DATA COMES IN. THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
MEANS THAT PERSONS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS
NEXT WEEK.